Switch Dominates Next-Gen Sales Projections

Gaming market analyst DFC Intelligence forecasts Nintendo's Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This prediction positions the Switch 2 as the clear market leader, outpacing competitors. Learn more about this exciting forecast below!

80 Million Units by 2028: A Dominant Force

DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, declares the Switch 2 the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. Nintendo is projected to lead the console market, surpassing Microsoft and Sony. This prediction stems from the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release, giving it a significant head start on competitors. Sales are projected at 15-17 million units in 2025, climbing to over 80 million by 2028. The report even suggests Nintendo may face manufacturing challenges to meet potential demand.

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain in early stages. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the three-year gap (unless a surprise release occurs in 2026) gives the Switch 2 a considerable advantage. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success. A hypothetical "PS6" is mentioned as having potential due to PlayStation's established player base and strong game franchises.

Nintendo's Switch console is already experiencing record-breaking success, surpassing the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, second only to the Nintendo DS in all-time US sales. This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.

A Resurgent Gaming Industry

DFC Intelligence projects a positive future for the gaming industry. Founder and CEO David Cole states that after a two-year downturn, the industry is poised for strong growth through the end of the decade, having expanded more than 20 times over the past three decades. 2025 is predicted to be a particularly strong year, fueled by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI.

The gaming audience is also expanding, projected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027. The rise of portable gaming, esports, and gaming influencers contributes to this growth, driving hardware sales across PCs and consoles.